Sponsored Links
German consumer confidence for November deteriorated unexpectedly as concern over the labor market problems weighed on the assessment of the personal economic situation and income expectations.
The forward-looking consumer confidence index for November dipped to 4 from 4.2 points in October, a monthly survey conducted by the Nuremberg-based GfK Group showed Monday. The consumer climate declined for the first time since September 2008. Economists were expecting the index to rise to 4.5 for November.
The sub-indices of the consumer confidence relates to October. Among the three indices, income expectations and the propensity to buy recorded losses in October, while economic expectations improved again. The GfK conducts its consumer climate MAXX survey each month on behalf of the EU Commission. The survey is based on nearly 2,000 consumer interviews.
After strengthening for four straight months, the income expectations slipped 3.1 points to 12.9. The low prices of crude oil were primarily responsible for the low inflation seen in the first half of 2009. The market research group assessed that the energy market would not have any further dampening effects on prices in the near future.
So the stimulus, which previously triggered stronger purchasing power, would no longer have its positive impact on income expectations. By contrast, the high level of competition in the food retail sector helped to maintain stable prices.
The index measuring propensity to buy dropped around 10 points to 26.1 in October. But, the index is currently more than 44 points above its corresponding level last year.
October's fall was partly attributable to moderate income expectations. Further, inflation is expected to enter positive territory in the months ahead on rising energy prices. Finally, the discontinuation of the scrappage bonus means that this element of support for the propensity to buy is lost. The recent development in this indicator was caused by a large number subsidized car purchases, as well as the steady price climate.
At the same time, the economic outlook was assessed more optimistically as reports in the recent weeks signaled that the economy could recover more quickly than the previous estimates. The upward trend in economic expectations continued in autumn with the index rising more than 5 points to 8.7 in October.
A joint statement from eight think-tanks released earlier this month said the largest Eurozone economy would expand 1.2% next year, after shrinking 5% in 2009. Experts had previously been expecting a decrease of 6% this year. The institutes assume that the number of unemployed people will rise to 4.1 million on average in the coming year.
The latest Ifo business confidence survey found that the business sentiment rose for the seventh consecutive month in October to reach a 13-month high. The indicator now stands at 91.9.
The GfK said gradual recovery in the global trade would support German exports again. This optimistic scenario justify the hope that the negative development on the labor market would prove to be less dramatic than the previous estimate.
0 komentar:
Post a Comment