Leading Indicators Index Rises For Tenth Straight Month

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The Conference Board released a report on Thursday showing that its leading economic indicators index increased for the tenth consecutive month in January, although the increase by the index was smaller than economists had been anticipating.

The report showed that the leading index increased by 0.3 percent in January following an upwardly revised 1.2 percent increase in December. The index had been expected to increase by 0.5 percent compared to the 1.1 percent growth originally reported for the previous month.

Ataman Ozyildirim, an economist at the Conference Board, said "The U.S. LEI has risen steadily for nearly a year, led by an improvement in financial markets and a manufacturing upturn."

"Consumer expectations and housing permits have also contributed to these gains over this period, but to a lesser extent - especially in recent months," Ozyildirim added.

The continued increase by the leading index reflected increases by five of the ten indicators that make up the index, with the interest rate spread, vendor performance, and average weekly manufacturing hours among the biggest positive contributors.

On the other hand, negative contributions from real money supply, average weekly jobless claims, and building permits helped to limit the upside for the index.

The report also showed that the coincident economic index rose 0.2 percent in January following no change in December. The Conference Board said a continue increase in industrial production more than offset a small decrease in employment.

Meanwhile, the lagging economic index declined 0.1 percent in January after falling by 0.3 percent in December.

The continued decrease by the lagging index was partly due to negative contributions from commercial and industrial loans outstanding, average duration of unemployment, and the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income.

With the coincident economic index rising and the lagging index falling, the coincident-to-lagging ratio rose to 92.7 in January from 92.4 in December.

Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, said, "The cumulative change in the U.S. LEI over the past six months has been a strong 9.8 percent, annualized. This signals continued economic recovery at least through the spring."

The Conference Board released a report on Thursday showing that its leading economic indicators index increased for the tenth consecutive month in January, although the increase by the index was smaller than economists had been anticipating. The report showed that the leading index increased by 0.3 percent in January following an upwardly revised 1.2 percent increase in December. The index had been expected to increase by 0.5 percent. (Market News Provided by RTTNews)