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A sustained growth in the agriculture sector is needed to guarantee global food security in the future, a Deutsche bank study has found. The increasing need for consumers to switch to a more balanced and healthy diet is also stressed by the German firm, observing that a more expansive diet has several adverse implications for both human and environmental health.
The firm said that the world faces three basic food-related challenges at present.
First of these, is the rise in world hunger. In the early 1990s, the number of hungry people started to bottom out, following a two-decade trend of declines. But since then, it has been on the rise, largely due to high food prices followed by the financial crisis. Although the financial crisis has helped bring global food prices down, it has also led to falling trade and lower development aid.
Ironically, a large proportion of hunger-afflicted people in the world today depend directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. According to latest estimates from the Food & Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 969 million people live on less than $1 a day, with three-quarters of that number dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. Their extreme poverty makes it next to impossible for them to climb out of poverty and escape hunger.
According to recent estimates, the number of hungry people in the world is expected to amount to just over a billion by the end of 2009.
The second concern, is the lack of a balanced diet in daily food intake. Although malnutrition caused by poverty remains a major cause of death globally, other diet-related diseases such as obesity, heart disease, stroke and diabetes are gaining ground. The European Union warns that over-eating and sedentary modern lifestyles have raised obesity to the number one public health challenge of the 21st century, with rapidly increasing childhood obesity of particular concern.
Another challenge facing food production is the degradation of the environment. Environmental degradation is connected to food in two ways. On the one hand, it is affecting food supply by limiting yield. On the other hand, it is the result of poor agricultural practices, in several ways. Problems such as soil degradation, water pollution, greenhouse gas emission, and loss of biodiversity offer a serious threat to global food productivity.
The firm observed that the world food situation is being redefined by new driving forces. Income growth, globalization, urbanization, high energy prices and climate change are radically transforming food demand, food supply and food access in the world.
Demand for food is expected to rise in the coming decades as a result of population growth and also as a result of growing economies in the developing world. Further, demand is not only increasing, but changing in nature. Higher urbanization and changing preferences are raising demand for high-value products in developing countries.
Food supply, on the other hand, is driven by a multitude of factors. The FAO say that in order to feed an estimated world population of 9 billion by 2050, current global food output must nearly be doubled. A number of challenges must be overcome to achieve such a target, including land constraints, water scarcity, high energy prices, falling investment in agricultural research and rising food waste, the report said.
Also, global warming and climate change is recognized by the firm as a huge threat to food production, especially in the southern hemisphere. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the earth is likely to warm by 0.2°C per decade for the next two decades, and global temperatures are expected to rise between 0.6°C and 4.0°C by the end of the century. The firm warned of some "uncomfortable consequences" of climate change for food security, listing Africa and some parts of Asia and Latin America as particularly in danger.
Moreover, the problem of food access will also have to be tackled. The reason why almost one billion people go hungry today is not because of a lack of food, but rather, because of a lack of access to food. The report advocated the need to regulate food prices by balancing supply and demand more evenly so as to offer a semblance of stability and reassurance to commercial farmers and small-time food producers.
The firm also discussed the outlook for global food security in the 21st century, and said that scarcity issues are expected to plague food production in the coming century. The competition for land and water, high energy prices and climate change all mean that the world has to produce more with less. Therefore, a sustained growth in the agricultural sector is vital to feed the world in the next few decades.
Another key reform that can help secure food supply is the consolidation and development of small farms. According to World Bank estimates, about two-thirds of the 3 billion rural people in the world live off the income generated by farming less than two hectares. These 500 million small farms have a crucial role to play when it comes to equity and poverty reduction. Smallholder farming can be encouraged by offering a greater amount of access to assets, selling markets, affordable credit, risk management mechanisms and also a better access to knowledge.
In the case of developing countries, the firm listed a few active measures that can be undertaken to reinforce food security in the coming decades, such as larger spending on agriculture, fostering an environment where small-scale farming can grow, limiting population by raising awareness and promoting healthy diversified diets.
The report noted that the impacts of the food system on human and ecological health is ultimately a consequence of consumption decisions, and said that consuming locally grown food when possible is beneficial to all. Moving towards a lower-impact and healthier diet was stressed, along with a more sustainable management of livestock, to cut down carbon emissions. The solution may lie in pricing the social and environmental costs, such as the imposition of a carbon tax, the report said.
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