Sponsored Links
Tuesday in Asia, the New Zealand dollar jumped against its major counterparts as the New Zealand economy reported better-than-expected current account balance in the second quarter.
In addition, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research's (NZIER) upward revision of its economic growth forecast for New Zealand for the first time in over a year also gave a boost to the kiwi.
The kiwi climbed to 14-month high against the euro, 13-month high against the US dollar, 5-month high against the Aussie and a 6-week high against the yen.
New Zealand registered a current account surplus of NZ$124 million in the three months to June 2009. Statistics NZ reported that the figure was the first surplus since the March 2003 quarter, with the agency noting that June quarter surpluses are unusual.
The seasonally adjusted account was a deficit of NZ$612 million for the June 2009 quarter, which was a reduction from the $2.120 billion deficit posted in the March 2009 quarter.
For the full year to June 2009, the current account deficit totaled $10.614 billion, representing 5.9 percent of GDP and marking the smallest full-year deficit as a percentage of GDP since September 2004. That compared to a deficit of $14.569 billion or 8.1 percent of GDP for the year to March 2009.
The annual deficit narrowed as demand for imported cars and computers fell amid increasing unemployment that reached 6.0% in the second quarter, while exports of meat and butter declined due to increasing currency value. Last week, Bill English the New Zealand Finance Minister said that the currency value appear to be stronger than what the fundamentals can support. A strong currency is causing concern for exporters. English said there are other ways to help them than the central bank intervening in the currency market.
Increasing currency value affected exports badly as New Zealand products lost a major competitive advantage. The New Zealand dollar climbed 31% against its US counterpart in the past six months.
The NZIER report released today said that the firm expects the country to resume growth in the September quarter, rising 0.1%, after a contraction of 0.2% in the June quarter. Moreover, the firm revised upwards its economic growth forecast for the year ended March 2010, to a decline of 1.3% from a 1.6% contraction estimated in its June survey. Further, it expects growth to be 2.7% in the year ended March 2011 and 3.4% in 2012.
The kiwi also advanced as New Zealand's Fonterra Co-operative Group lifted its payout forecast for the 2009/10 season by 55 cents to NZ$5.10 per kilogram of milksolids, citing improved international dairy prices.
Fonterra CEO, Andrew Ferrier said the strong increases in prices for whole milk powder at the global Dairy Trade events in the past two months echo a broad strengthening of demand and robust recovery in international dairy prices.
The positive economic reports encouraged traders by suggesting that the worst of the economic conditions may be behind. Yesterday's reports said that the services sector activity in New Zealand continued to show expansion in August and a survey showed that the business confidence show a substantial rise in September.
The New Zealand dollar hovered near a 6-week high of 65.93 against the Japanese yen during Tuesday's Asian trading. The next resistance for the pair is seen around the 66.2 level. At yesterday's New York session close, the kiwi-yen pair was quoted at 65.01.
Against the common unit of Europe, the New Zealand dollar has not only strengthened but hit a 14-month high level of 2.0493. This may be compared to yesterday's closing value of 2.0780. The next upside target for the kiwi is seen around the 2.02 level.
In the upcoming session, the Italian second quarter unemployment report is expected.
The New Zealand kiwi jumped against the Australian dollar to its highest level since April 06, 2009 during Tuesday's early trading. At about 9:20 pm ET, the Aussie-loonie pair hit as high as 1.2098, compared to 1.2219 hit late Monday in New York. On the upside, the kiwi may likely find resistance near the 1.20 level.
The Aussie has been climbing against its major counterparts today except against the kiwi following the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economy report.
According to the report, commodity exports in Australia are predicted to rake in A$158.31 billion in the current fiscal year that started July 1, down 20 percent year-over-year, thanks to a global decline in commodity prices. That follows an estimated rise of 32 percent to A$197 billion in 2008-09.
Gold output for the 2008-09 fiscal year came in at 218 tons, down 5 percent. For 2009-10, gold output is expected to add 15 percent to 251 tons, the data showed, while copper output is forecast to climb 9 percent to 1 million tons.
ABARE also raised its forecast for the Australian dollar, putting it at A$0.83 from the previous US$0.77. It also boosted its GDP forecast from -5 percent to +5 percent.
The NZ dollar rose to a fresh 13-month high of 0.7190 against the US dollar during today's early Asian trading and this may be compared to Monday's New York session closing value of 0.7072. On the upside, resistance is likely seen at the 0.721 level for the kiwi.
No major economic reports are expected from the U.S. today.
0 komentar:
Post a Comment