ABARE: Commodity Exports Forecast At A$158.31 Billion In 2009-10

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Commodity exports in Australia are predicted to rake in A$158.31 billion in the current fiscal year that started July 1, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economy said on Tuesday, down an annual 20 percent thanks to a global decline in commodity prices. That follows an estimated rise of 32 percent to A$197 billion in 2008-09.

Gold output for the 2008-09 fiscal year came in at 218 tons, down 5 percent. For 2009-10, gold output is expected to add 15 percent to 251 tons, the data showed, while copper output is forecast to climb 9 percent to 1 million tons.

ABARE also raised its forecast for the Australian dollar, putting it at AU$0.83 from the previous US$0.77. It also boosted its GDP forecast from -5 percent to +5 percent.

Australia's farm export earnings are forecast to fall marginally in 2009-10, after rising strongly in 2008-09.

"Although winter crop production is forecast to increase in 2009-10, an assumed higher average value of the Australian dollar is expected to lead to lower farm export earnings in the short term," said Dr. Terry Sheales, Deputy Executive Director of ABARE.

The value of farm exports is forecast to fall by 2.5 percent to A$31.1 billion in 2009-10, revised down from A$32.5 billion in ABARE's June issues. It will follow a 16 percent rise to A$31.9 billion in 2008-09 and also represents a 13 percent increase over the A$27.5 billion in 2007-08.

Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2009-10 include barley, chickpeas, lupins, oats, peas, rice, sorghum, raw cotton and sugar. However, the effects are more than offset by forecast lower export earnings for wheat, canola, wine, livestock and livestock products.

For energy and minerals, export earnings are forecast to plunge 23 percent to A$123 billion in 2009-10, due to lower contract prices for bulk commodities, including coal and iron ore. This updated forecast for the export value of mineral resources represents a downward revision of about A$1 billion from the forecast in June.

"At a forecast $123 billion, minerals and energy export earnings in 2009-10 will be the second highest on record," Sheales said.

The value of energy exports is forecast to fall by 36 percent to around A$50 billion in 2009-10. For metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to decline by 12 percent to around A$74 billion in 2009-10.

(Market News Provided by RTTNews)